October 29, 2014

The shifting field is causing unrest. There are some interesting numbers and some actions that are indicative of a movement in our favor.

The first is the recent public polling data. The most recent poll shows us gaining, moving from 9 to about 12 percent over eight to ten days. The polling results do not include the most recent debate. This is quite positive in many ways.

First, third party campaigns frequently lose numbers as the election day closes in. People grow more fearful of the potential change and return to the safety of their dysfunction. This is often difficult to overcome, but in this campaign, the numbers have improved almost by a third.

This, coupled with the fact that third party polling is often inaccurate, that the undecided vote swings greater in the favor of alternatives, and that the polls themselves are not so accurate in that there are many people who won’t admit support for alternatives, all goes to a good sign.

The second good sign is that the support for the Democrat candidate is slipping, dramatically and with a vengeance. This fluid support, coupled with a strong no-return to the fold, is where the election will be won or lost.

The fact that the support has temporarily made camp with the Republican candidate is interesting. This support will up and leave given the proper motivation. The Republicans know this and have been working the fear lines quite hard, along with several pleas for us to simply drop out.

The programmed calls by volunteers claiming that they truly believe that we are the most intelligent, most likeable, best candidate, is usually then followed, but I cannot vote for him because he cannot possibly win. It is the political equivalent to the big lie, said over and over to get people to believe it.

The point is that if the Republicans really believed that the polls show them winning, they would not be so rabid about the need to clear the field.

From a strategy point of view, it could read that while they had a recent bump in the polling, the increase is not firm support. The internal polling of the funded candidates must be indicating that this support needs to be kept in the camp as captives, knowing their tendency to wander.

The fluid nature of this Republican support is ripe for taking. Many have left the Democrat camp, moving to the safety of the Republican, yet finding it doesn’t truly fit there. These people, if they grow more and more convinced that they will not vote for either, will consider the third alternative.

The late debates and limited numbers make it more likely for them to come to this position at the last minute, a factor that is almost beyond the control of the major parties.

In short, the mobilizing of the campaign forces to attempt to secure the new arrivals, coupled with the need to secure the base with “endorsements” and visits by candidates, is indicative that their internals are showing this abnormality.

My gut tells me that we are moving up, that their support is fluid at best, that there is greater slippage to be had as the debates show a reasonable alternative, and that the ball reaches critical mass just before the election.

This, coupled with last minute mistakes and random fire of unanswered questions, will create a difficult field to pass with safety. This vulnerability will prove itself. The issue is whether or not it all makes for a rout or for an upset.

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